Five Random 2022 Global Security Predictions
By Luke Bencie and Kacy Cartmell
If 2020 was the year of the global pandemic, then 2021 could
be considered the forgotten year after the pandemic. Rather than
hitting a reset button and getting back to work, the previous
twelve months could be summed up in one word – lack-luster.
Fortunately, we have been granted a new year and a fresh set of
calendar months. Therefore, like any good futurist and/or sage,
please allow me to pontificate on my global security predictions
for the year ahead.
China vs. Taiwan: To begin with, there is a lingering question
as to whether China will finally invade Taiwan. My prediction – not
likely.
Since the Chinese Civil War, the People’s Republic of China
has made their discontent with the pseudo-independent island to
the east very clear. China has asserted that Taiwan is part of
China. Taiwan disagrees. Despite only 14 countries in the UN recognizing
Taiwan as an independent country, many nations – including
the United States – maintain positive relations with the
territory. In October, Chinese President Xi Jingping made it clear
that he wants “peaceful unification” between Taiwan
and mainland China. However, he later stated that China is “prepared
to fight a bloody battle against our enemies.”
Despite China’s increasing rhetoric and unabashed desire
to become the new world superpower, there are still several logistical,
military, and diplomatic issues that would come about with an
invasion of Taiwan. Not only would a move on the island be costly
(both economically and in bloodshed), but there would also likely
be major military powers that come to the defense of Taiwan – such
as Australia, India, and Japan (U.S. involvement is still up for
heated debate). As for now, China is more likely “saber-rattling,” in
an effort to see which countries will take a stand against them… or
in an attempt to assert their global dominance.
Russia vs. Ukraine: If a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan
is considered contentious, the aggressive military buildup of
100,000 troops, with advanced artillery, along the Ukrainian border
by Russia is even more precarious. Do such actions signal a Russian
invasion of Ukraine, similar to the annexation of Crimea, which
took place in 2014? My prediction – possible.
The Russo-Ukrainian relationship has been strained since the
fall of the Soviet Union and the establishment of an independent
Ukraine. In addition to troop deployments on the border, both
Ukraine and Russia have stepped up their violent rhetoric. Russia
is concerned with the Ukrainians willingness to ally with the
West (NATO countries specifically) and their aspirations to join
the European Union. Putin has made it clear that Russia will not
sit idly by as the west comes to the aid of Ukraine by stating, “If
the aggressive line of our Western colleagues continues, we will
take adequate military-technical response measures and react harshly
to unfriendly steps.” This situation hinges on whether or
not Ukraine joins the EU or NATO this year. If not, I don’t
believe Russia will invade. However, if Ukraine does join, expect
Russian tanks to roll across the border.
Afghanistan as a Haven for Terrorists: Following the withdraw
of American and NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2021, the incoming
Taliban leadership has struggled to effectively govern the war-torn
nation. As such, the obvious question becomes, will terrorist
organizations once again flourish in Afghanistan? My prediction – yes.
With a return of the Taliban, and their re-establishment of Afghanistan
as an Islamic emirate, there will no doubt be a return of international
terrorist groups into the country. The Taliban’s victory
has done nothing but embolden al-Qaeda, and other major networks,
to seek safe refuge within the vast mountainous landscape. Additionally,
with the Taliban’s poor infrastructure, overwhelming humanitarian
crisis, lack of international monetary aid, and fractured leadership,
there will certainly be opportunities for well-funded terrorist
groups to buy tribal loyalties and consolidate their own power,
outside of the major cities of Kabul and Kandahar. It is certain
that unless the Taliban suddenly complies with the demands of
the international community, regarding human rights and basic
freedoms (which is highly unlikely), Afghanistan will once again
become the world’s terrorist safe haven.
Saudi Arabia vs. Iran: The decades long tension between the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been called
the “Cold War in the Desert.” Will this uneasy relationship
between rivals escalate in 2022? My prediction – yes. (Will
direct conflict between the nations occur? No.)
The regional struggle for dominance in the Middle East shows
no signs of slowing. While the two powerful nations – separated
by the Persian Gulf or Arabian Gulf (depending upon who you are
talking to) have avoided direct conflict thus far, they continue
to battle one another via proxy wars. Saudi Arabia has been engaged
in an ongoing battle against Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen.
As such, Iran has denied that it has been covertly funding the
rebels with weapons and technology. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has
been reserved on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, allowing Israel
to contain Iran (and Hamas in Lebanon). Both Saudi Arabia and
Iran are engaged in strategic maneuvering against each other in
Syria and Iraq. With Iranian-backed drone strikes occurring more
frequently in Saudi Arabia, expect tensions to boil over in 2022.
The End of Pandemic Disruptions: As the global pandemic has dragged
on since early 2020, the question that must be asked is, “will
the world get back to normal day-to-day operations this year?” My
prediction – yes.
About the Authors
Luke Bencie is the Managing Director of Security Management International.
He can be reached at www.smiconsutlancy.com Kacy Cartmell is a
Junior Research Associate at Security Management International
and is a student at the University of South Florida.
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